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The Philippine Department of Agriculture estimates El Niño could cause up to ₱20 billion in agricultural damage. Water levels at Laguna de Bay have fallen below the critical-high threshold amid dry weather, and the lake authority has urged farmers and fish operators to take precautions.
Drought losses in a major rice-importing country can increase Philippine import demand and support Asian rice prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.