
Strong soybean oil demand is being driven by California's low-carbon fuel standard, which encourages renewable diesel production. USDA economist Seth Meyer and ASA economist Scott Gerlt spoke at the Ag Outlook Forum, noting new plants are pausing as prices rise and that 7 billion gallons of expected capacity is unlikely to materialize.
Expected renewable diesel expansion is a key source of soybean oil demand, so slower buildout limits upside while current high prices keep oil supply tight.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.