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First survey-based estimate of US planted acreage plus quarterly stocks.
USDA NASSAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Released the same day as the drop, the USDA reports showed higher-than-expected corn planting intentions (about 92.8M acres) and larger-than-expected March 1 stocks, a bearish supply surprise that plausibly drove corn's sharp one-day decline.
Released the same day as the drop, the USDA reports showed higher-than-expected corn planting intentions (about 92.8M acres) and larger-than-expected March 1 stocks, a bearish supply surprise that plausibly drove corn's sharp one-day decline.
The USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports were released on Friday 2019-03-29 and the market reaction would be priced in by the next trading day (Monday 2019-04-01); a bearish surprise on wheat acreage or stocks would add supply pressure and plausibly explain a large one-day SRW drop, though the exact figures are not given here, so confidence is moderate.
