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First survey-based estimate of US planted acreage plus quarterly stocks.
USDA NASSAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports released 2023-03-31 offered fresh US acreage and stocks data that could shift supply expectations, and the selloff on the next trading day (Apr 3) is consistent with the market digesting a bearish surprise (e.g., higher-than-expected wheat acreage or stocks), though the summary gives no figures so the link is plausible but not confirmed.
