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First survey-based estimate of US planted acreage plus quarterly stocks.
USDA NASSAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports were released on 2024-03-28/29, and the first trading session after the Good Friday weekend was 2024-04-01. Reported corn acreage and stocks above expectations would add to supply and plausibly explain the outsized one-day drop as the market repriced on that supply news.
The 2024 Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports were actually released on March 28, 2024 (the listed date is one day off, likely because markets were closed for Good Friday on March 29), and the report's corn acreage of about 90.0M acres, below trade expectations, signaled tighter supply and plausibly drove the sharp one-day rally.
