
Oil fell after US commercial crude stocks rose 4.3 million barrels, well above the expected 1.65 million-barrel build. Brent traded near $82.94 after multi-year highs earlier in the week, and OPEC+ is expected to keep adding 400,000 barrels per day monthly.
A surprise inventory build signals softer US crude demand, a bearish cue for energy costs that feed through to diesel, fertilizer and freight.
After 171 past bearish report events, WTI moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, BRENT moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.