
Minneapolis December spring wheat futures rose above $10 a bushel to a new contract high. Ending stocks are estimated at a 14-year low, US spring wheat supplies are down 44% year over year, and Russia raised its wheat export tax to about $67 a tonne.
Record-high spring wheat values and Russian export tax increases tighten global wheat supply, lifting feed grain costs and supporting prices for substitutes.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 497 past report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.5% to +2.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Low US ending stocks and Russia's higher export tax supported a bullish wheat fundamental backdrop.