
Reuters reported that the European Commission proposed a law to block imports of commodities linked to deforestation, requiring companies to prove their global supply chains do not contribute to forest destruction. Non-compliant companies could face fines of up to 4% of their EU turnover, and the rules cover soy, beef, palm oil, wood, cocoa and coffee.
Mandatory due diligence and possible fines could make importers more cautious about sourcing soy and palm oil from high-risk areas, which may tighten EU supply and shift trade flows. The impact depends on how strictly the rules are enforced.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 102 past neutral policy events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.