
The European Commission published a roadmap to address global deforestation, seeking feedback until January 15, 2019. The Commission said increased production of soy, beef, palm oil, coffee and cocoa drives almost 80% of deforestation, and that EU demand contributes to the problem.
The EU signalling tougher action on deforestation-linked commodities points to possible future import limits on soy, palm oil and beef. The effect on prices remains a longer-term risk rather than an immediate shift.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.