The European Commission published its formal proposal for a regulation on making available on the EU market, and exporting from the EU, commodities and products linked to deforestation and forest degradation. The proposal would repeal Regulation (EU) No 995/2010 and cites cattle, wood, palm oil, soy, cocoa and coffee as the main drivers of forest loss.
If adopted, importers would need to prove their supply chains are deforestation-free, which could raise compliance costs and slow EU-bound flows of soy and palm oil. The proposal still has to pass through Parliament and Council, so the near-term price effect is limited.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.