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Brazilian markets sold off sharply after reports that President Temer approved hush-money payments to a jailed former lawmaker. The selloff hit the real and the Ibovespa, and some investors are now arguing the drop is an entry point.
Political risk threatens the economic reform agenda and the currency, which can shift Brazil's export pricing for soybeans, corn and meal.
After 12 past bullish policy events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +1.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.0%), and +2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.