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The EU Commission's JRC MARS bulletin for December says autumn weather has been mostly fair, allowing winter crops to establish. Frost hardening is weaker than usual across central, eastern and south-eastern Europe, especially in the Black Sea region, though no frost damage has been detected so far.
Weak frost hardening and delayed development raise the risk of winter kill if a cold snap arrives, which would tighten wheat supplies and support prices.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euDec 13, 2021After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
