
OPEC and its allies will proceed with their next oil-production hike of 400,000 barrels a day for January, but said they could revisit the decision at any moment. Oil fell as much as 4.8% to $62.43 a barrel in New York on the announcement before recovering most of those losses.
Traders recognized that a get-out clause was built into the agreement.
The intraday swing shows that the market reads the get-out clause as a limit on downside, while the planned supply addition is still bearish. Crude direction matters for energy costs that feed into feed ingredient prices.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.