
The Indian rupee fell sharply on February 24 after Russia invaded Ukraine, closing at 75.65 from 74.56 in the prior session and testing 76.00 intraday. Crude oil rose nearly 8% and foreign institutional investors were net sellers, with Indian bond yields also rising.
A sharp rupee drop and oil spike raise import costs for India, a major buyer of edible oils and feed inputs. Higher crude also increases diesel and freight costs along the feed supply chain.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.