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Oxford Economics says the renminbi has held steady despite China's economic slowdown and the Russia-Ukraine war, and expects it to remain durable in the first half of 2022. It expects weakness in the second half as policy divergence with the US and a smaller current account surplus weigh on the currency.
A forecast of a weaker yuan in the second half would modestly lower China's dollar cost of imported feed inputs, with limited near-term price impact.
oedevelopment.oxfordeconomics.comSally LiMar 1, 2022After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
