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Oxford Economics research says domestic fundamentals drive renminbi movements more than external factors such as rate differentials. It expects the currency to stay near historical highs into 2024 because of dollar strength, credit stress and further rate cuts.
The analysis suggests persistent yuan strength or weakness will depend on domestic credit and rate policy, which shapes the dollar cost of Chinese feed imports. The outlook gives no immediate price shock for feed commodities.
oxfordeconomics.comJiawen CuiOct 16, 2023After 169 past neutral macro events, USDCNY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
