
India is set to export a record 7 million tonnes of wheat this year, and exporters are competing with the US, Argentina and China for new business. Egypt, the largest wheat importer, is expected to tender after its April harvest, and Egypt's imports have mostly come from Russia and Ukraine.
Egypt's expected tender and the loss of Russian and Ukrainian supply create a large opening for Indian and other origins, supporting wheat prices. Indian exporters must first obtain accreditation with Egypt's supply authority.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.