Wheat futures rose limit-up after India curbed exports, allowing shipments only to countries that request them for food security. Chicago SRW, Kansas HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat all hit multi-year highs, and London and Paris futures set record closes.
India's export curbs remove a major supplier from a market already short of Black Sea grain, so global wheat import costs and feed-grain alternatives are likely to stay firm.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.