
USDA NASS data released January 31 show the US cattle and calves inventory on January 1, 2022 at 91.9 million head, down 2% year on year. The decline mainly reflects fewer beef cows and heifers retained, linked to poor pasture and range conditions in the West and Plains.
A shrinking US beef cow herd reduces future calf and feeder supplies, supporting higher feeder and live cattle prices over the coming cycle.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.