
Oil futures fell sharply after Fed minutes were seen as hawkish and the IEA announced a 120 million barrel reserve release. EIA data showed rising US crude production and inventory builds.
A large coordinated stock release adds supply and pushes crude lower, which feeds into biofuel and diesel costs and therefore soyoil and feed-related energy input prices.
After 215 past bearish policy events, WTI moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 15 past bullish policy events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.