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A Bank of Canada deputy governor speech on May 12, 2022 described the commodity price shock from the pandemic and the Ukraine war. It noted nominal commodity prices had doubled since summer 2020, with oil up about 150%.
Persistent commodity inflation raises input costs and pushes central banks toward tighter policy, which can strengthen the US dollar and weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices. The speech signals that rate hikes will continue.
bankofcanada.caToni GravelleMay 1, 2022After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
