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ING forecasts USD/CAD will trend lower to 1.31 in 4Q20 as oil and global risk appetite recover. The bank says the oil price collapse has hit Canada's economy hard, with Bank of Canada GDP estimates of a 15-30% plunge in the second quarter.
This is a currency forecast tied to oil recovery, with no direct new supply or demand event for feed commodities.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, James KnightleyMay 15, 2020After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
