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An ING analysis using a BEER fair-value model finds the dollar is not exceptionally expensive against G10 currencies. The euro, pound and krona have lost fair value from a negative terms-of-trade shock, while commodity currencies look undervalued.
Currency valuation signals suggest commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and CAD may recover, which can shift export competitiveness and origin-country commodity pricing.
think.ing.comFrancesco PesoleMay 23, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
