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ING analysis notes euro interest rates and inflation swaps have risen alongside USD counterparts, though the eurozone reflation trade rests on weak fundamentals. Harsher lockdowns, slower vaccine rollout and limited fiscal stimulus leave eurozone recovery distant.
Rising global commodity prices are feeding into some inflation expectations.
Higher inflation expectations and commodity prices can support raw material values, but the eurozone's weaker growth limits feed demand from Europe.
think.ing.comFeb 9, 2021After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
