
Business Standard reports that India's DAP imports from China fell to about 97,000 tonnes in July 2025, per a minister's reply in Parliament. The decline followed China's 2021 inspection requirements, and the minister said APS could partly substitute for DAP.
Lower Chinese DAP imports reduce supply to India and tighten the market, supporting phosphate prices, with APS offering only a partial substitute.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
This report of the same July import collapse, with the minister saying APS can only partly substitute for DAP, reinforces the view that Indian import demand will stay strong and supply short.
Same data on India's sharply lower Chinese DAP imports signals tighter trade flows supporting prices.