
Imported finished DAP prices have surged above $800 per tonne for July and August deliveries, near historic highs of about $1,000, after China restricted exports and supply tightened. Domestic Indian DAP makers are taking a smaller hit because their raw material costs, such as rock phosphate, have risen much less.
India imports more than half its DAP, so tight Chinese supply and dwindling stocks keep upward pressure on finished DAP prices. Domestic producers with cheaper inputs can keep margins, which supports the case for local value addition.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.