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Spot milk in the Upper Midwest has traded about $10 per hundredweight under the Class III price every week this year, according to USDA Dairy Market News. US milk production rose only 1% year over year in Q1 2023, below the long-term trend of about 1.5%, and March output matched March 2021 levels.
Production growth is concentrated in regions such as South Dakota and Texas, where new processing capacity is being added.
Slow national milk supply growth and new cheese capacity suggest the discounted spot milk does not reflect a broad surplus, which limits downside pressure on milk prices.
hoards.comBen Laine, TerrainMay 4, 2023After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
