
Oil fell about 6% on June 17 to a four-week low as interest rate hikes by major central banks raised worries about slower growth and weaker energy demand. Brent settled at $113.12 and WTI at $109.56.
The US dollar rose to its highest level since December 2002 against a basket of currencies.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced crude more expensive for buyers in other currencies, and tighter monetary policy cuts energy demand expectations. Lower crude and a firmer dollar tend to ease energy costs but can weigh on US export competitiveness for grains and meal.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.