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An Emerald briefing says India will keep tight control over wheat exports after the May ban, which allows exceptions only for shipments under existing letters of credit and for food-security requests from foreign governments. It adds that Delhi may consider rice restrictions if monsoon rains disappoint, and that global wheat prices will stay elevated in the short term.
Continued restriction of Indian wheat exports keeps global wheat supply tight and supports prices, with rice curbs a risk if the monsoon weakens.
doi.orgJun 13, 2022After 182 past bullish policy events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
After 100 past neutral policy events, RICE moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.6% to +2.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
