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The June WASDE left U.S. and global corn, wheat and soybean balance sheets largely unchanged. U.S. 2022/23 corn ending stocks rose to 1.4 billion bushels, and Ukrainian corn output was raised to 25 mt, although exports were unchanged because of the war.
Higher corn stocks are mildly bearish, but Ukraine's larger crop cannot reach export markets while the war continues, limiting its price impact. Market reaction is expected to stay muted until the USDA acreage report.
think.ing.comWarren PattersonJun 13, 2022After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
