
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said a US recession would hit Indonesia through lower exports and weaker commodity prices. The US economy has technically entered recession after contracting in the first two quarters of 2022, and she warned of capital outflows that could pressure the rupiah.
A US slowdown and softer demand for Indonesian exports point to lower commodity prices, while capital outflows add pressure on the rupiah and local input costs.
After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.