MIDF Research expects Malaysia's economic growth to be supported in the second half of 2019 by a rebound in investment and steady domestic consumption. MIDF also expects external trade to moderate as US-China tariff hikes disrupt supply chains and reduce import demand from Malaysia.
Weaker external trade from Malaysia and disrupted regional supply chains would modestly reduce demand for palm oil and feed imports, with limited direct price effect.
After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.