
The yuan inched up as the US-China 10-year yield gap narrowed to -3 basis points from about -15 bps, with US bond prices rising on global recession worries. The PBOC set the midpoint at 6.7071, weaker than the prior fix, and the central bank made its smallest cash injection in 1.5 years.
Narrowing yield gaps and recession-driven bond buying shape currency flows, but the small yuan move has little direct bearing on feed commodity prices.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.