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Ukraine removed wheat and wheat/rye mix from its list of goods requiring export licenses, decided by the Cabinet on July 1. Oats and nitrogen fertilizers were also excluded from export quotas.
Ukraine's June grain exports rose 23% month-on-month to 1.4 million tonnes.
Easing Ukrainian export licensing lets more wheat and oats reach world markets, adding supply that could weigh on prices.
poandpo.comChristian FernsbyJul 4, 2022After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 49 past policy events, OATS moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.7%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Ukraine removing oat export quotas and licensing for wheat raises expected export supply and eases world grain tightness, a bearish supply signal for oats and grains.
