The European Parliament's industry committee voted on 13 July to restrict soy oil as a feedstock for EU biofuel production, placing it on the same footing as palm oil. Lawmakers also want the phase-out of palm and soy biofuel feedstocks, currently set for 2030, to start as soon as the directive enters into force.
About 73% of EU biodiesel soybeans come from South America.
Removing soy oil and palm oil from the biofuel quota would cut EU biodiesel demand for vegetable oils, which is bearish for soy oil and palm oil prices. Soybean meal could also see some pressure as crush margins adjust.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.