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European ethanol production theoretical margins fell to multi-month lows this week as energy costs surged. The drop is attributed to a natural gas price spike that raised production costs.
Higher natural gas costs squeeze European ethanol margins and can reduce production, which lowers co-product supply. The energy spike also adds upward pressure on fertilizer and feed input costs.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.