
Vietnamese export rice prices reached their highest level since January 2025 as limited supply threatened exporters' ability to fill new orders. Vietnamese 5% broken was offered at $470-480/t, up from $440-450/t the prior week, while Chicago grain prices declined on US harvest pressure and Black Sea supply prospects.
Autumn-winter harvest is not expected until late November with yields about half of the summer-autumn crop, which supports further rice price gains into the coming month.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.