
Wheat prices fell about 20 cents a bushel in the week to Oct. 28 after recent rain in the U.S. Midwest and Russia eased dryness concerns.
The analyst expects a further 25 to 30 cent decline, with a possible rebound in February-March depending on weather.
Rain easing Russian and U.S. dryness removes some supply risk premium, so wheat and canola feed costs may soften in the near term.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.