Despite the decrease in the forecast for the harvest in Canada, wheat prices fell by 1.3-3.3%

After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.

• May 17, 2024Forecasts of a good wheat harvest in the US and the EU continue to lower stock prices+19.4%
• Dec 19, 2022EU grains harvest in 2023 to recover nearly all lost ground, despite early test from cold - Grain Price News-1.5%
• Mar 29, 2021Favorable conditions for winter crops, increasing pressure on the prices of new crop wheat-0.5%
• Mar 25, 2025Wheat prices fall amid increased rainfall in the US, Ukraine and Russia, which increases pressure on prices in Ukraine-1.9%
• Jan 17, 2023Big harvest figures despite weather woes | Farm Online | ACT-3.8%

After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.

• May 17, 2024Forecasts of a good wheat harvest in the US and the EU continue to lower stock prices+5.6%
• Mar 25, 2025Wheat prices fall amid increased rainfall in the US, Ukraine and Russia, which increases pressure on prices in Ukraine-3.6%
• Apr 18, 2018Wheat prices fall on US rain, but dry threat remains for winter crop | Farm Online | ACT+2.5%
• Nov 13, 2020Australian harvest puts pressure on wheat prices | Farm Weekly | WA+0.9%
• Apr 28, 2025Global wheat market: Wheat prices fall as weather improves in the northern hemisphere-1.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.