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Warm weather and rainfall in Ukraine and Russia are supporting winter crops and pressuring new-crop wheat prices, which fell to $230-235/t FOB for July-August delivery. Russian exports are up 26% year on year to 34.6 million tonnes, while Ukraine's are down 19%.
Good French crop conditions and a weaker euro have pushed European wheat lower, and the Suez Canal blockage is slowing vessel loading.
Lower Black Sea and European offers reduce the global wheat price floor and increase competition for importers. Suez delays add freight costs and timing risk for shipments.
graintrade.com.uaMar 29, 2021After 425 past weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +3.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 596 past bearish events of any kind, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
