
Russian 12.5% protein wheat export prices fell $18/t in a week to $310-315/t FOB, and American SRW and French wheat also declined. Russian exports are running 25% below last year due to sanctions and fewer buyers.
Falling Black Sea and Russian export prices, combined with weaker Russian shipments, point to lower global wheat values that bear on feed wheat costs.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.