
USDA's August supply and demand report raised wheat exports by 25 million bushels and tightened ending stocks by about 29 million bushels. The season average price forecast was cut by $1.25 per bushel as futures and cash prices returned to pre-invasion levels.
Lower USDA price forecasts and reduced U.S. carryout reflect softer cash wheat values, though tighter stocks still support feed wheat demand.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.