Droughts, Ukraine war push global grain stocks toward worrying decade low

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2025Drought, low prices to drop Mexico’s grain production | World Grain+0.6%
• Oct 10, 2018Eastern drought pushes Australian winter crop forecast lower - Grain Central+8.2%
• Jul 11, 2017ABN Amro: Grain prices higher due to US drought • De Molenaar-2.0%
• Sep 10, 2026Drought Grows South, Rain Helping Northward Through Next Week-0.9%
• Sep 11, 2018Drought lowers Australian grain forecast | 2018-09-11 | World Grain-7.4%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2025Drought, low prices to drop Mexico’s grain production | World Grain+1.0%
• Mar 25, 2025Global corn stocks low and falling - prices to rise-1.5%
• Sep 4, 2023Crop tour sees lower soybean estimates due to drought, record heat | World Grain+0.4%
• Jul 6, 2021Weather, tight stocks dictate grain markets-1.9%
• Sep 10, 2026Drought Grows South, Rain Helping Northward Through Next Week+4.3%