Record low Mississippi River levels have left barges beached and grain stranded in the Midwest, trapping local supplies. Ethanol producers report improved margins, with ADM citing $0.52 per gallon for July-September and The Andersons returning its ethanol division to profit.
Midwest basis has fallen sharply, reaching negative $0.46 per bushel at some southern Iowa river docks.
Stranded corn and soybeans depress local cash prices relative to Chicago futures, giving ethanol plants and river-served buyers cheaper feedstock while farmers and elevators on the river face weaker basis. Feed buyers in the interior may see lower local grain costs even as freight-related disruption persists.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.