Low water has returned to the Mississippi River system as harvest ramps up, after an exceptionally dry August in the Ohio Valley. The Coast Guard imposed draft and tow restrictions on September 19, limiting southbound drafts to 10 feet and tows to six barges wide.
The Ohio River is supplying only 12% of the lower Mississippi's flow, and the Memphis gauge reads -7.1 feet.
Restricted barge loading raises freight costs and can delay shipments of a projected record corn crop. Higher transport costs widen interior basis and pressure farm-gate prices during peak harvest.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.