A FXMAG outlook dated December 30, 2022 for the first days of January 2023 says the Canadian dollar is pressured by risk-off sentiment and sluggish oil prices, with USDCAD resistance at 1.3800 and support at 1.3330. It also notes an assertive ECB and an upcoming U.S. jobs report and FOMC minutes.
The outlook points to continued weakness in oil and risk appetite, a mild headwind for energy-linked commodity values and currency-driven trade flows.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.