BUZZ COMMENT-Oil and Fed should define next year's FX trends

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Dec 12, 2023What led to this fall's oil price slide — and what might come next | CBC News+1.7%
• Sep 10, 2020Covid and trade war fears drop oil and fuel prices - Container News+5.6%
• Apr 4, 2025US refiners' shares hit near two-year lows as Trump tariffs spur fuel demand fears-10.2%
• Feb 12, 2018Canadian Dollar's Correlation to Oil is Back, and this Could Spell Downside+4.4%
• Jun 14, 2022Oil prices settle down on fears of Fed and oil profit tax-8.6%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Dec 14, 2016Fed surprises with three rate hikes next year — and could need more+1.6%
• Sep 23, 2020Dollar Strengthens; Helped by Housing Data and Fed Comments+0.8%
• Oct 3, 2018US dollar strengthens after Fed comments - The Business Times+0.6%
• Jun 20, 2017Dollar hits 3-week high on New York Fed president's comments - The HinduBusinessLine+0.0%
• Aug 29, 2022Yen slides to 139 level on policy comment by Fed's Powell - Nikkei Asia+0.6%