
US consumption of diesel, heating oil and other distillates has started to fall in response to high prices and slower manufacturing and freight activity. Diesel exports from China have slowed, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions have worsened supply tightness.
Freight operators are consolidating deliveries to conserve fuel.
Falling demand from manufacturing and freight reduces diesel prices and freight costs for feed. The mix of high prices and conservation suggests that demand will stay weak in the near term.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.