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Banque de France published a analysis of the recent surge in global wheat prices, linking the rise since 2020 to steep increases in fertiliser prices, supply disruptions from the Ukraine war, and trade restrictions by some countries. It notes that US HRW wheat hit a historic high of $522.3/t in May 2022 before easing.
Wheat is fertiliser-intensive and many developing importers depend on few exporters, so high energy and fertiliser costs keep feed grain costs elevated and exposed to supply shocks.
banque-france.frAuthors : Raj Rajesh, Paul Vertier, Thibault Lemaire, Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, Aude Le MétayerDec 23, 2022After 28 past macro events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -3.0% to +3.0%), and -2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
