Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 forecast for the European TTF benchmark by $3, citing LNG competition and Europe's rush to refill depleted storage. Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG feedgas nominations hit new highs as it commissions more liquefaction blocks, and EIA raised its Henry Hub forecast to $3.80/MMBtu.
Tighter global LNG and storage conditions support higher gas prices, which raise nitrogen fertilizer costs and can strengthen urea and ammonia prices.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.